13 Nearing Leeward Islands

Tropical Depression 13 is now only 250 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. It is moving at 21 mph to the west-northwest, and that should continue for the next few days.

13 should gradually strengthen and become a tropical storm over the weekend. 

It should move near the northern Leeward Islands late today, near Puerto Rico Shabbos, and near Hispaniola Motzei Shabbos. 

13 could be near or at hurricane strength when it moves near or over Florida next week. 

The National Hurricane Center said earlier this morning about 13 that "The intensity forecast remains low confidence.  The separation 

between the low- and mid-level centers, as well as some westerly 

shear and dry air entrainment, suggests that significant 

strengthening is unlikely during the next 24 h or so.  The dynamical 

models suggests the centers will become more vertically aligned 

around 36-48 h and that the shear should diminish.  However, the 

system could be close to Hispaniola during this time, and be near 

Cuba thereafter, especially if it moves south of the forecast track. 

The upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico should be generally 

favorable for development if the cyclone doesn't get too close to 

Tropical Depression Fourteen.  The possibilities range from the 

system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF."

Basically, it is still "very disorganized" this morning and there is a good deal of uncertainty. It will likely get organized and strengthen in the 2 to 3 day time frame, but that is dependent on it not drifting southwards over some islands. But it is more likely to move more northwards if it is stronger, so it is kind of tricky. To get stronger, it needs to move northwards, but to move northwards, it need to get stronger.