Delta Strengthening Over the Gulf, Local Impacts Likely

Delta is restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico, and is only 400 miles from Louisiana.

Movement is at 14 mph to the northwest, and Delta should turn northward at a slower pace through the next 36 hours.

6 to 9 inches of rain are expected across southwestern and central Louisiana, with 4 to 6 inches expected in the remaining parts of Western Louisiana. 2 to 4 inches are expected in a large portion of the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Mid Atlantic states. 

This raises a significant flash flood concern. 

Delta should continue to strengthen into a major hurricane by tonight. 

Model guidance indicates a low probability of Delta rapidly strengthening. 

Conditions will turn less favorable in the final 12 hours before landfall. Therefore, some weakening should occur. However, Delta will remain a dangerous hurricane. 

In addition to the rain, peak storm surges of 11 feet are likely. 

Delta should quickly become a remnant low over land, and dissipate Sunday. 

But until then, affects from Delta are expected to affect our area on Sunday/Monday. 

Delta will have become an elongated storm at that point, so the center can be in Tennessee, but rain can be in Maryland. 

The likelihood of getting at least some rain from Delta now appears to be at about 80%. The chances of it occurring on Sunday is about 60% and near 70% by Monday.

The likelihood of getting over 1 inch of rain is about 60%. The chances of getting over 2 inches is 30%, and about 20% that it tops 3 inches.

Obviously, this is subject to change, so monitor later forecasts.