Grading Our Winter Storm Forecast

    Looking over our forecast and what actually happened, we were close though not exact.

Our predictions for 6 to 9 inches were a bit above reality. However, snowfall totals of 5 to 6 inches were reported in the area. 

The National Weather Service official observation graphic shows similar results - 5 to 6 inches here. 

We anticipated the 2-4 inch snowfall Sunday. The ice was underestimated, though no significant impact came of the ice. 

OUR FORECAST

Thursday:

3-5 inches Sunday, uncertainty Monday with the potential for another few inches. Possible changeover to a snow/ice mix. 

Read it here

"-Snow Sunday, possibly 3-5"

-Uncertain forecast for later Sunday through Monday

-Could have another few inches of snow

-Possible changeover to mix or even rain

-Precipitation could be snow (again) Monday night into Tuesday if the system is slow to clear out"

That was correct for Sunday, and did predict the mixed precipitation as well the slow moving storm. 

Friday:

5 to 7 inches total with a trace of ice. 

Read it here

"MinyanCast predicts that we will get the following:

Sunday: 3-5"

Sunday night: Trace of ice, coating of snow

Monday: 2-4" "

That was very accurate, although underestimating the ice totals.

Motzei Shabbos:

We upped the total to 6-9 inches, keeping the trace to 0.1 inches of ice. 

Read it here

" Totals: 

• Sunday: 3-5" of snow
• Sunday night: trace of ice/sleet
• Monday: 3-6" of snow"

"There is potential for very high snowfall totals (near a foot), but also a possible bust to factor into the forecast."

We went a bit too high on the snow, but did mention the bust factor. 

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Overall, we were pretty accurate, as a total of 6 inches still fits the last forecast issued. We were more accurate with our first forecasts.