Winter Storm Likely Sunday and Monday

      An arctic blast is taking hold, and this will set the stage for what could be a major winter storm Sunday and Monday. 

Friday will be another breezy and chillier day, with a high of 33. Winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected. Highs Shabbos are forecast to still be only 35, with little breeze. Plenty of for sunshine both days. 

Then it gets messy for Sunday and Monday. The arctic air the previous few days will make the ground cold, enough to have snow stick. 

>>Don't want to read the long explanation? Click to skip to the summary<<

"At this early stage, it appears that areas along Interstate 95 from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore and Philadelphia will probably pick up at least a few inches of snow," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said.

Accuweather says "Some milder air higher in the atmosphere could cause precipitation to change to a wintry mix, including sleet, and then perhaps rain in those mid-Atlantic cities. It is possible that a wedge of dry air will sweep up from the south instead and shut off precipitation."

The National Weather Service says "At a minimum, it does seem like many places stand to see some snow."

Another "possible solution, which is still depicted in some guidance, is for more continuous precipitation through the period, which could result in more significant snow totals in some areas."

Track the latest graphics at winter.minyancast.com.

This storm system is a complex one, known as "Miller Type B". Basically, one low pressure system will move over the Ohio Valley as it weakens Sunday. Then energy will transfer to a new low pressure system forming on the coast (a coastal low). This low (low pressure system) will likely move slowly northeastward, which could cause a prolonged period of precipitation.

Factors favoring snow:

-Cold air in place well in advance of the storm, with the ground below freezing

-Plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into

Factors against snow:

-Possible dry slot (area of dry air within a broader system) with this coastal low

-Warmer air may move in, changing precipitation to mix or even rain

Factors favoring general precipitation (not specifically snow)

• All three major computer models are in good agreement, a good sign for this storm to actually happen

Factors against general precipitation (not specifically snow)

• Dry air may work in between the coastal low and the original one out in Ohio, preventing precipitation for part or much of the time

This one of our new additions to the winter weather page - our snow forecast

Another new addition to the winter weather page

Taking everything into consideration, snow appears very likely for Sunday. While currently it looks like snow could continue Monday, this is uncertain.

We will update you as details become clearer.

Summary

• Snow Sunday, possibly 3-5"
• Uncertain forecast for later Sunday through Monday
• Could have another few inches of snow
• Possible changeover to mix or even rain
• Precipitation could be snow (again) Monday night into Tuesday if the system is slow to clear out

Temperatures next week will be closer to 40.

SITE UPDATES

We have made a couple updates:

1. New graphics on the winter weather page, including MinyanCast's projected snowfall totals & NWS snowfall predictions

2. A new page has been made, displaying the weather conditions recorded at BWI airport from the past 3 days. View that here↗.