Winter Storm On The Way For Sunday Into Tuesday

     A winter storm is becoming increasingly likely, with up to 10 inches of snow now in the possibilities. Before we overreact, let's see the forecast details and what factors could lead to higher or lower snowfall amounts. 

The initial low pressure system will move over the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow before transferring it's energy to a coastal low pressure system developing along the coast of the Carolinas. 

This new coastal low will strengthen and stall out on the coast of Maryland and Virginia. This will lead to prolonged precipitation, which could mean higher snowfall amounts. 

Exactly how strong and exactly where that new low is remains the biggest question. Temperatures are cold enough for snow - that at least is something we can be confident in. 

If the low is close enough in for the heaviest bands of snow to be over central Maryland (us!), we could see totals nearing a foot. But if it gets pulled more offshore, then we might get stuck with lighter to moderate snow, and totals in the 5 to 8 inch range. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT 6AM SUNDAY - 6AM TUESDAY FOR 5+ INCHES OF SNOW

Here is our summary forecast:

There is high confidence in getting at least 5 inches. There are good chances for 8 inches, but very slim chances of getting over 12 inches.

The snow will begin in the 6-7 am range, though it probably starts on the lighter end. It will become steadier in the afternoon. 

Then precipitation is expected to mix with sleet and become more of a freezing rain/sleet combination Sunday night. Drier air will be moving in, which means it will lighter and intermittent. 

As a result, only a trace to 0.1 inches of ice are expected. This may cause the snow from Sunday to melt down some, but get iced over.

Then snow will begin again Monday, and continue into Monday night. 

Some lingering snow showers are possible Tuesday, but at the moment, no accumulations are really expected. 

Highlights:

• Snow starts 6-7 am Sunday, becoming steadier in the afternoon
• Changes over to freezing rain & becomes intermittent Sunday night
• Snow, sometimes heavy on Monday, tapering off Monday night

Totals: 

• Sunday: 3-5" of snow
• Sunday night: trace of ice/sleet
• Monday: 3-6" of snow

High End Total Snowfall (the entire winter storm): 11"

Low End Total Snowfall (the entire winter storm): 4"

There is potential for very high snowfall totals (near a foot), but also a possible bust to factor into the forecast.

Here is the National Weather Service prediction. Baltimore is on the line between 6-8" in south-central Maryland and 8-12" in northern Maryland.

The latest NWS prediction can be found on our winter page, along with our snow and ice predictions.