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Update: Rain Monday, Snow Likely Wednesday

 Sunday evening update: The system that will be responsible for Wednesday's storm is now moving onshore in the Pacific coast. This should improve computer model quidance tonight as they get a better handle on what is really happening in the atmosphere. 

No major shifts occurred in this afternoon's computer guidance. One thing to note was that freezing rain is possible in the areas between rain and snow. 

Original article (Sunday morning)

Details are becoming clearer as we get closer to some interesting weather setups this week. 


Today is already in the low 60s, and enjoy the sunshine. 

Tomorrow, Monday is only 40 as the high. This depends on the exact rainfall rates, as heavier rain will keep things cooler. That will also factor into the snow forecast. 

Several inches of snow are possible in western Maryland, as heavy rates of precipitation look likely. Locally, don't expect any snow accumulations. But the rain could fall as a rain/snow mix tomorrow.

Rain is expected to begin by 7am in the morning, and will taper off by 3pm. Temperatures tumble Monday night, dropping to near 25. 

Tuesday is only 40 for the high, under clear skies.

The next event is Wednesday, which you may have heard about already (see a BJL article here that hypes this up). While some forecasters may give snowfall predictions (4 inches, 6 inches, etc), these are not reliable. Especially where we line up on the rain/snow line, and even in other areas to the west, any predicted totals 4-5 days away will likely be wrong.

Precipitation will likely start out as snow across the area, as temperatures are already in the 20s to start. Cold air will be funneling in from a high pressure area to our north.

As a low pressure area passes by, precipitation should begin by around noon. Again, this should be snow, but could transition to rain or a rain/snow mix sometime in the afternoon. 

As temperatures drop and we head into Wednesday night, this mix will likely become snow (assuming it transitioned in the first place). 

"When this transition takes place and where it sets up is the million dollar question in these type of events", the National Weather Service said Sunday morning.


Below are some graphics on this system

1pm Wednesday:

Look closely, and we are just barely on the snowy side
7pm Wednesday:
We have rain now
1am Wednesday night:
It is back to snow to finish it off

Accuweather is already predicting 3-6" for our area

There is a good chance the turnout of Monday's rain will help computer models and forecasters understand how the Wednesday storm will turn out.

Sometimes these things just aren't clear until it happens, as we can end up right on the rain/snow line. 

One local meteorologist thinks that "the bulk of the snow impact will be at night and early Thursday morning." This would mean that most of the precipitation is at night, and would be snow.


  • Monday has no snow accumulations, but maybe some snowflakes mixed in
  • Wednesday storm brings snow or rain/snow in afternoon, and snow Wednesday night
  • Accumulations Wednesday could be 4-6 inches, but too soon to tell
A better picture of what will happen, and how much will come in the next 24 hours.


  1. Icy roads possible Tuesday morning
  2. Slippery roads Wednesday, especially in the evening when it gets dark
  3. Snow-covered or icy roads and sidewalks Thursday morning


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