Updated: Messy Mix To Begin Monday Evening

    Update Monday morning: Computer models have trended a little slower with the onset of precipitation, indicating it starting closer to 6pm. In addition, it looks likely (though not certain) that we start with snow for the first few hours before transitioning to freezing rain near or just after midnight. This depends on when exactly things warm up on the ground, and just how much. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT 4PM TODAY UNTIL 10AM TUESDAY.  

Freezing rain is likely into the first half of Tuesday morning. 

Watch for slippery roads this evening and Tuesday morning. 

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      A messy wintry mix will begin late Monday afternoon or Monday evening, with slippery roads possible. There is another storm to watch for Thursday. 

Disclaimer: Details are uncertain, and a slight change in temperature could affect a lot. 

The cold weather the past couple days has allowed, and will continue to allow, the ground to be freezing and cause the snow to stick. 

Precipitation should begin late Monday afternoon or in the evening, and exit Tuesday morning, aside from some lingering showers. 

Highlights

• Precipitation begins 3-5pm
• Most of it ends by 8am Tuesday; lingering showers through the day Tuesday
• 1-2" of snow are likely
• Around 0.1" of ice are likely - a glaze
• Slight changes of temperature could mean more or less snow or ice

Graphics:

This map is from the National Weather Service. Note: "Baltimore" on the map is for downtown/BWI, not our area. We are closer to the 2" area then downtown is.

Ice totals of around 0.1" seems likely, which is basically a glaze over everything. This would be the same as what happened December 16 - December 17 this winter.

Models are indicating some snow to start, becoming a wintry mix by midnight - this would most likely be freezing rain, since temperatures aloft (in the atmosphere) will be warm while it is cold on the ground.

Computer Models

 

 

The above two are an American model.

Below is the Canadian model.

This shows all snow in the evening, becoming freezing rain overnight.

Total snowfall: 

GEM/Canadian: 0.5-1"

GFS/American: dusting

Other forecasters: 1-2"

The Summary:

• We should get 1-2" of snow and 0.1" of ice
• Slippery roads are possible Monday evening due to snow and/or ice
• Slippery roads are possible Tuesday morning due to ice
• Cars may be iced over (windshields, doors) Tuesday morning
• Changes may occur, but this is the most likely scenario

There is also a system to watch for Thursday. This one depends not on temperature, but on it actually hitting us. Assuming it does, we could be in for some real snow. Check back later, after this first event is over with for more details.