What Is Happening With The Forecast?

 Have you noticed that the forecast has been a bit awry in the past week? 

This is because computer models are having a tough time with the weather. Computer models are supercomputers run by governments and organizations across the globe. These are the backbone for every weather forecast, no matter who the person or company is. 

As an example of the inaccuracy, last Monday (June 7), computer models and all of the weather companies (AccuWeather, Weather Channel, etc) showed rain in the evening. In the end, nothing happened. 

And it went downhill from there. Tuesday, storms were expected in the early evening. Rain fell around 2pm, in some places heavy. Following that, for Wednesday, storms were expected in the late evening. Instead, a quick downpour happened at around 3pm. 

Thursday's heavy rain was shown as a moderate rain for an hour or two. Friday's rain was also supposed to be more moderate. 

Then the drizzle Sunday, another wrongly calculated prediction from the supercomputers around the world. 

It seems that computer models are predicting rain at 4-7 hours off. Typically, they are an hour off or something closer to that. But now, they have been hours off.

This means what looks like a 7pm shower to us turns out to be a 3pm burst of rain. There has also been more rain than they are predicting. 

And this problem is occuring nationwide, not just in Maryland. Storms out in South Dakota were likely to come in around 11pm Sunday evening. But they exploded over the state around 4pm. Down in Texas, storms were expected around 6pm. They came in around 3pm. 

In summary, computer models - what everything weather-related relies on - are off by a few to several hours consistently.

When or if technicians will correct the problem or make updates remains to be seen.